Isn’t the difference between low-income and high-income groups much more interesting? Seems the difference in political backgrounds might be explained by more low-income groups identifying as republican. The trends also move quite a bit per year, changing direction in different years, is the sampled group sufficiently large/well sampled?
I can't answer your polling-accuracy question. But I do think the income-related differences are interesting, and I don't think they're necessarily more interesting than the political-alcohol divide the poll alludes to. There's so much in this poll to dig into! That was partly my point in calling out public media on this, based on a qualified hunch that they're treading lightly to avoid any inference of sounding "political."
Looked into the study a bit more, some more statistical analysis would have been welcome. A multi-variate analysis could give some insight into how the variables are related, as it stands it’s unclear what part of the racial variance is explained by different income levels between racial groups for example. In addition controlling for political base shift would have been an improvement.
Also note that although the Gallup article misleadingly implies there is a relation between the dropped reporting of abstinence and perceived health effects, they find no correlation between these factors in their research. They also find no relation between cannabis legalization and increased abstinence.
All this is pretty weird, if I had to guess ‘societal acceptance’ of abstinence may influence the data. For instance, if the last time I drank was a few months ago, I might say I abstain from drinking if this is perceived as a desirable answer. Alternatively I could answer that I do identify as someone who drinks if I feel this is more inline with my perceived identity.
Thank you for your deeper analysis. The self-reporting of alcohol use or abstinence that this poll relies on has been consistent over the years, I think, but still, research based on cohort self-reporting always leaves open the question of data reliability. Also, I agree that people are prone to potentially alter their answers to comport with how they want to be perceived. And if that's true, a culture shift toward not only greater acceptance but also the exaltation of non-drinkers could warp self-reporting of some drinkers.
Re marijuana's influence or non-influence, Gallup seemed to rule out marijuana laws influencing the outcome of the poll. My bullet point about increased cannabinoid use offsetting some drinker's need to use alcohol may still be true regardless of whether state laws changed. But, also, it may not.
I cannot speak for PBS but as a retired NPR journalist (33yr career there) I doubt there was any self-censorship in the failure to report the political stat. The figure is fairly deep in the weeds. It was most likely a time limitation.
Jean, I was hoping you'd weigh in here. You may well be correct. But, very respectfully, I don't know think the single largest change in any cohort's alcohol consumption is in the weeds. It very well could be a time issue; people cranking out news on a deadline, and some things get missed. On the other hand, it's simply conspicuous by its absence, imo.
Also, I apologize for the dumb typos in my emailed post. I'm sure you caught those, too. Embarrassing. I must be better.
Great article Paul! I enjoyed reading it and as someone who got off the sauce in 2022 I was intrigued to see how the various subgroups fared during the approximate same time period.
I see a significant decline in my peers drinking (over 55). This coincides with their desire to be healthier- eating and exercise. Our Thursday night golf group drinking is waaaay down.
That's interesting because I am observing the same thing, with myself and others around me. I wonder if it's a product of collectively feeling worse after drinking now than we used to, or if all the news about the delirious effects of drinking are making an impact on people's choices to drink or not.
Yes. I would agree Paul. We had the first botanical, non-alcoholic distillery in the country (or maybe just in the state) open up in our town 2 or 3 years ago. Great on the rocks or mixed!
Thank you. As an ER physician, I see the harmful effects of alcohol every day. Accurate science research, analysis, and reporting is essential for our collective health.
Interestingly, I first became aware of this trend a number of years ago while in Spain. It was the first time I had ever heard that non-alcoholic Gins and Vodkas even existed. Apparently there has been a significant decline in consumption there since 2010.
Seen from France, it's really really weird that less than half of poor people and right leaning people report no drinking. Sorry to ask, but is there some way to "wrongly answer" the question - say, discounting "very light beer drank from home" as "no really drinking" ?
Or are the poorest people simply taking synthetic drug instead ?
Biden is also a total alcohol abstainer. I believe there is some informed online commentary about this poll, and the political divisions it highlights, that discuss how politics may influence people in one or another political party to change social behaviors even slightly.
Isn’t the difference between low-income and high-income groups much more interesting? Seems the difference in political backgrounds might be explained by more low-income groups identifying as republican. The trends also move quite a bit per year, changing direction in different years, is the sampled group sufficiently large/well sampled?
I can't answer your polling-accuracy question. But I do think the income-related differences are interesting, and I don't think they're necessarily more interesting than the political-alcohol divide the poll alludes to. There's so much in this poll to dig into! That was partly my point in calling out public media on this, based on a qualified hunch that they're treading lightly to avoid any inference of sounding "political."
Looked into the study a bit more, some more statistical analysis would have been welcome. A multi-variate analysis could give some insight into how the variables are related, as it stands it’s unclear what part of the racial variance is explained by different income levels between racial groups for example. In addition controlling for political base shift would have been an improvement.
Also note that although the Gallup article misleadingly implies there is a relation between the dropped reporting of abstinence and perceived health effects, they find no correlation between these factors in their research. They also find no relation between cannabis legalization and increased abstinence.
All this is pretty weird, if I had to guess ‘societal acceptance’ of abstinence may influence the data. For instance, if the last time I drank was a few months ago, I might say I abstain from drinking if this is perceived as a desirable answer. Alternatively I could answer that I do identify as someone who drinks if I feel this is more inline with my perceived identity.
Thank you for your deeper analysis. The self-reporting of alcohol use or abstinence that this poll relies on has been consistent over the years, I think, but still, research based on cohort self-reporting always leaves open the question of data reliability. Also, I agree that people are prone to potentially alter their answers to comport with how they want to be perceived. And if that's true, a culture shift toward not only greater acceptance but also the exaltation of non-drinkers could warp self-reporting of some drinkers.
Re marijuana's influence or non-influence, Gallup seemed to rule out marijuana laws influencing the outcome of the poll. My bullet point about increased cannabinoid use offsetting some drinker's need to use alcohol may still be true regardless of whether state laws changed. But, also, it may not.
I cannot speak for PBS but as a retired NPR journalist (33yr career there) I doubt there was any self-censorship in the failure to report the political stat. The figure is fairly deep in the weeds. It was most likely a time limitation.
Jean, I was hoping you'd weigh in here. You may well be correct. But, very respectfully, I don't know think the single largest change in any cohort's alcohol consumption is in the weeds. It very well could be a time issue; people cranking out news on a deadline, and some things get missed. On the other hand, it's simply conspicuous by its absence, imo.
Also, I apologize for the dumb typos in my emailed post. I'm sure you caught those, too. Embarrassing. I must be better.
Interesting data Paul; the Republicans in power are causing me to drink more!
I suspect you're not alone, Lauren.
I think the lack of response from NPR is because they have a wine club 😀
Juan, THAT’S IT!
I wish I had known that….
Great article Paul! I enjoyed reading it and as someone who got off the sauce in 2022 I was intrigued to see how the various subgroups fared during the approximate same time period.
Adrian, the data is really interesting. Congratulations on your three sauceless years.
Great article Thanks for posting. Amazing
Henry, thanks so much for reading, and for your note. Please pass it on to whomever you think would enjoy it.
I see a significant decline in my peers drinking (over 55). This coincides with their desire to be healthier- eating and exercise. Our Thursday night golf group drinking is waaaay down.
That's interesting because I am observing the same thing, with myself and others around me. I wonder if it's a product of collectively feeling worse after drinking now than we used to, or if all the news about the delirious effects of drinking are making an impact on people's choices to drink or not.
I started noticing it after JRE mentioned it. Seems to be popping up everywhere
Sorry, who or what is JRE?
Here's the link to their site Paul - https://wildertonaperitivo.co/
Thanks! Will def check this out.
Yes. I would agree Paul. We had the first botanical, non-alcoholic distillery in the country (or maybe just in the state) open up in our town 2 or 3 years ago. Great on the rocks or mixed!
Do they make wine or spirits? What state, if you don't mind me asking?
Thank you. As an ER physician, I see the harmful effects of alcohol every day. Accurate science research, analysis, and reporting is essential for our collective health.
Well said, Dr. Swanson. Thank you for reading and for your comment.
Interestingly, I first became aware of this trend a number of years ago while in Spain. It was the first time I had ever heard that non-alcoholic Gins and Vodkas even existed. Apparently there has been a significant decline in consumption there since 2010.
That's another factor that may play a role in the decline of alcoholic drinking: the rise of non-alcoholic drinks that actually taste good.
Seen from France, it's really really weird that less than half of poor people and right leaning people report no drinking. Sorry to ask, but is there some way to "wrongly answer" the question - say, discounting "very light beer drank from home" as "no really drinking" ?
Or are the poorest people simply taking synthetic drug instead ?
Oh, and I forgot : Trump is a notorious non-drinker. Does that play a part ? That would be unexpected, but, hey...
Biden is also a total alcohol abstainer. I believe there is some informed online commentary about this poll, and the political divisions it highlights, that discuss how politics may influence people in one or another political party to change social behaviors even slightly.
Is the data suggesting republicans are woke? Or are they lying? I do agree that republican hatred of America is driving the rest of us to drink.
Could it be people embracing religious beliefs that ban alcohol?